Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 2.070617 2.174520 2.285669 2.414326 2.560353 2.722465 2.918272
2025-10-05 1.984763 2.121301 2.273521 2.458345 2.680444 2.944138 3.290072
2025-10-12 1.939879 2.101381 2.287338 2.522127 2.818513 3.192872 3.726390
2025-10-19 1.869722 2.043373 2.247683 2.512714 2.859386 3.318403 4.018646
2025-10-26 1.818188 2.002321 2.223097 2.516541 2.913285 3.463291 4.364067
2025-11-02 1.751699 1.938457 2.165100 2.471153 2.894207 3.499715 4.544763
2025-11-09 1.706213 1.897619 2.132850 2.455889 2.913289 3.591840 4.838102
2025-11-16 1.667130 1.862522 2.105404 2.444149 2.934752 3.688377 5.164461
2025-11-23 1.630301 1.828408 2.077092 2.428646 2.948169 3.772249 5.491228
2025-11-30 1.608956 1.812830 2.071806 2.444023 3.008154 3.941071 6.065840
2025-12-07 1.558104 1.757430 2.011332 2.377692 2.936329 3.869698 6.044637
2025-12-14 1.528064 1.728022 1.984442 2.357974 2.936093 3.927075 6.377298
2025-12-21 1.492123 1.690742 1.946763 2.322486 2.910853 3.940408 6.617326
2025-12-28 1.485914 1.691968 1.960985 2.363160 3.012095 4.211295 7.820432
2026-01-04 1.486047 1.701328 1.986430 2.421755 3.149360 4.588549 9.972667
2026-01-11 1.464177 1.680455 1.968766 2.413362 3.169111 4.715989 11.307309
2026-01-18 1.447437 1.665919 1.959353 2.417015 3.210487 4.903339 13.579669
2026-01-25 1.417557 1.632782 1.922432 2.375609 3.165645 4.871289 14.153074
2026-02-01 1.397573 1.612623 1.903416 2.361710 3.171084 4.968884 16.458160
2026-02-08 1.379539 1.594659 1.886941 2.351012 3.181582 5.082814 20.008645
2026-02-15 1.361316 1.575989 1.868860 2.336839 3.184177 5.176678 24.904026
2026-02-22 1.352277 1.569659 1.868342 2.350979 3.243108 5.447856 49.318552
2026-03-01 1.322001 1.533375 1.823220 2.290092 3.148001 5.237785 37.179824